Sabalenka Favourite at Australian Open but Faces Swiatek, US Threats

Aryna Sabalenka may walk into the Australian Open as the bookmakers’ favourite, but the road to another Melbourne crown is anything but clear. The Belarusian powerhouse has built a fearsome reputation on hard courts, blending raw power with improved composure, and her recent form suggests she is primed for another deep run. Still, history and a stacked field warn that being the favourite can be as much a burden as a blessing.

Sabalenka’s biggest and most familiar obstacle remains Iga Swiatek. While the Pole is better known for her dominance on clay, her evolution on hard courts has been impossible to ignore. Swiatek’s relentless consistency, defensive brilliance, and mental toughness make her a nightmare matchup—even for a player who can hit through almost anyone. If the two collide in Melbourne, it would likely be the tournament’s defining clash, a battle of brute force versus precision control.

Beyond Swiatek, a wave of American contenders looms large. Coco Gauff continues to mature into a complete player, armed with athleticism, belief, and a Grand Slam-winning mindset. Jessica Pegula’s tactical intelligence and steadiness make her a dangerous floater in the draw, while Madison Keys, when healthy, has the firepower to trouble anyone on a fast surface. The US contingent brings depth, variety, and hunger—exactly the ingredients that can derail a favourite’s campaign.

For Sabalenka, the key will be managing pressure as much as opponents. Her serving and aggressive baseline game thrive in Melbourne’s conditions, but the Australian Open has a history of exposing nerves and momentum swings. One loose service game or emotional dip can flip a match, especially against elite returners and counterpunchers.

Still, Sabalenka has shown growth. Her improved shot selection and calmer on-court demeanor suggest she’s better equipped than ever to handle the spotlight. She knows what it takes to win here—and that knowledge counts.

In the end, Sabalenka deserves her favourite status, but the margins are razor-thin. With Swiatek’s shadow looming and American challengers circling, Melbourne promises drama. If Sabalenka lifts the trophy again, it won’t be because the path was easy—it’ll be because she conquered one of the most dangerous fields women’s tennis has seen in years.