Taylor Fritz vs. Denis Shapovalov: Where to Watch, Miami Open Preview, Betting Odds

🎥 Where to Watch
In the U.S., live coverage is available on Tennis Channel, with the match scheduled for around 12:10 p.m. ET on Monday, March 24 – streaming via TennisChannel.com. In the UK, Sony Network (Sky Sports) holds broadcast rights .

👥 Match Background & Rivalry
Fritz (27) and Shapovalov (25) share a history of tight contests. The Canadian burst onto the scene by winning their first three meetings. However, Fritz responded with victories in both 2023 meetings—including a 6‑4, 6‑4 win in Miami—nearly evening their head-to-head . Their most recent showdown in Dallas (February 2025) saw Shapovalov staging a comeback, rallying from a set down in a deciding tiebreak, which helped him seize his maiden ATP 500 crown.

Their all-time tally stands at 6–4 in Shapovalov’s favor over 10 matches, though Fritz claimed wins in both their Miami battles.

📊 Current Form
Shapovalov has enjoyed a strong 2025 so far: a title in Dallas and a semifinal run in Acapulco, moving him confidently inside the top 30 . Fritz’s early season was uneven, but he rebounded by defeating Lorenzo Sonego in straight sets in Miami’s second round.

Both players excel with hard-hitting serves and forehands. Shapovalov’s one-handed backhand may dazzle but carries inconsistency, particularly on returns—a factor Fritz could exploit with his steadier game.

💵 Betting Odds & Predictions
As of March 23, BetMGM lists Fritz as the moneyline favorite at −235 (+180 for Shapovalov) and -210 for winning the second set (+145 for Shapovalov).

Dimers.com’s simulation model assigns a 64% win probability to Fritz vs. 36% for Shapovalov. Sportskeeda quotes similar odds (Fritz −210, Shapovalov +160).

Tennisnerd suggests Fritz (1.37/−270) and a −3 spread bet (1.86) as smart plays due to Shapovalov’s serving vulnerability.

🔍 Tactical Outlook
Expect a battle defined by contrasting styles: Fritz’s baseline consistency versus Shapovalov’s aggressive, high-risk play. Pressure scenarios—tie-breaks, pivotal breakpoints—may favor Fritz, whose steadier ball-striking has proven reliable under duress.

Still, if Shapovalov rides the momentum from Dallas and Acapulco, he could push Fritz deep into tight sets. Yet, most models and odds favor Fritz to utilize his consistency and motivation as the clay season looms.

🏆 Final Take

• Prediction: Taylor Fritz to win, likely in straight sets or a competitive three-setter.

• Betting angles: Moneyline on Fritz (best value around −235 to −270), and consider second set win at −210.

• Streaming: Tennis Channel in the U.S. (~12:10 p.m. ET), Sony/Sky elsewhere.

Tune in—and enjoy what promises to be another enthralling chapter in their classic rivalry.