Denis Shapovalov vs Pedro Martinez Prediction – French Open 2025

Denis Shapovalov faces Pedro Martínez Portero on May 26, 2025, in the opening round at Roland Garros. Both players have had mixed seasons leading into this clay‑court Grand Slam, making their clash intriguing.

🎾 Recent form & context

Denis Shapovalov (World No. 31) has endured a rocky clay swing: losing in the first round at Monte Carlo to Marcos Giron, retiring at the BMW Open, falling to Alex de Minaur in Madrid, and crashing out early in Rome to Vilias Gaubas. He enters Paris needing to rediscover the form that once took him to a historic Wimbledon semifinal in 2021 .

Pedro Martínez (No. 48) has similarly unsteady clay form: reaching second rounds in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, but falling to Hurkacz in Rome . His best Roland Garros result came in 2020, reaching the third round.

Head-to-head

These two have met once, on clay in Rome 2020, with Shapovalov claiming a straight-sets 6‑4, 6‑4 win. That sole encounter gives him a 1‑0 H2H lead.

Odds & predictive models

Pre-match odds favor Shapovalov: moneyline around –210 to –245, with Martínez a consistent +160 to +190 underdog. Predictive models echo this: Dimers projects a 62 % win probability for Shapovalov versus 38 % for Martínez. Forebet’s algorithm even puts it at 65 % to 35 %.

Tactical analysis

Both players boast similar keenness on clay, yet their playing styles contrast sharply. Shapovalov’s aggressive, left‑handed, one‑handed backhand all-court game has flourished on faster surfaces —but clay tests his consistency. Martínez, by contrast, leans into defense and patience from the baseline. Their lone clay meeting suggested Shapovalov’s power can tip the balance.

But both entered Paris underwhelmingly. Shapovalov’s confidence may be shaky after recent losses; Martínez hasn’t far outperformed him on clay. Given Shapovalov’s greater Slam pedigree—US Open QF and Australian Open QF in 2020, Wimbledon SF in 2021 —he holds the edge.

Prediction

Consensus leans toward a decisive Shapovalov win, potentially in straight sets. Sportskeeda’s Geoff Poundes projects a straight‑sets victory , with predictive sites backing a clean finish. A 3‑0 win looks likely if Shapovalov rediscovers his intensity. Even if Martínez extends rallies, momentum favors the Canadian.

📌 Pick: Denis Shapovalov in straight sets, or at minimum, a win while covering any moderate game handicap.