Jessica Pegula vs. Anastasia Zakharova Prediction, Odds, Picks for Australian Open 2026

When Jessica Pegula steps onto the Melbourne hard courts to face Anastasia Zakharova in the first round of the 2026 Australian Open, the numbers and narratives almost unanimously point in one direction: Pegula. But let’s break down what to expect in this classic matchup of experience versus rising hunger.

Form & Ranking — Gap on Paper

Pegula arrives as the heavy favorite, backed by her top-10 status and consistent results on hard courts. She’s established herself as one of the most reliable players on the WTA Tour, with multiple titles and deep runs in big tournaments, including semifinals and finals at WTA 1000 events and strong Grand Slam showings.

Zakharova, meanwhile, is ranked much lower and has yet to make a significant impact at the highest level. She’s shown promise in smaller events and fought through qualifiers, but her experience against elite opponents is limited—especially on a stage as big as a Grand Slam.

Odds & Predictions

The bookmakers’ odds and predictive models strongly favor Pegula. Most moneyline markets list her as a shortening favorite, with Zakharova’s odds much longer, reflecting the gap in experience and ranking. Predictive simulations give Pegula roughly a 90% chance of winning the match, and an 84% chance of taking the first set, underscoring how likely a straight-sets result is.

What to Expect on Court

Pegula’s strengths will be key: tactical precision, powerful baseline play, and mental fortitude under pressure. On hard courts—her best surface—those traits make her particularly formidable in early rounds. Zakharova will need to find rhythm quickly and stay aggressive to disrupt Pegula’s rhythm. If she can extend rallies and force Pegula into longer exchanges, there might be value in game spread markets—even if a straight loss is the likely outcome.

Picks & Best Bets

Straight-up Winner: Jessica Pegula — most likely in straight sets.
First Set: Pegula to take it — reflects her early match dominance.
Spread Play: Zakharova +6.5 games could provide an intriguing line if she fights hard.

Final Thought

This match is a clear opportunity for Pegula to assert her top-seed quality and build momentum early in Melbourne. For Zakharova, it’s an invaluable experience—no matter the scoreline. Pegula’s depth and consistency on hard courts make her the smart pick here; the only surprises would come from a tightening Zakharova performance or a rare off day for the American.