Iga Swiatek’s projected path to Cincinnati Open 2025 final

As the World No. 3 and reigning French Open champion, Iga Swiatek enters the 2025 Cincinnati Open with her eyes firmly set on the title — and a strong finish ahead of the US Open. With a bye in the opening round, Swiatek’s journey won’t be easy, but her draw gives her a clear roadmap to potentially lift her first Cincinnati crown.

Here’s a round-by-round projection of Swiatek’s path to the final:

🟡 Second Round: vs. Anastasia Potapova or Qualifier

Swiatek will begin her campaign against either Anastasia Potapova or a qualifier. While she holds a winning record against Potapova, the Russian has the weapons to test her early, especially on hard courts.

🔵 Third Round: vs. Marta Kostyuk or Tatjana Maria

If she advances, she’s likely to face Marta Kostyuk, a powerful and athletic player capable of pushing her baseline game. Veteran Tatjana Maria could also make a surprise run, though Swiatek’s speed and court coverage give her the edge.

🟣 Round of 16: vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia or Caroline Garcia

This is where the real test begins. Both Haddad Maia and Garcia have strong records on hard courts and won’t shy away from trading blows with Swiatek. Garcia famously beat Swiatek in Poland in 2022, so revenge could be on the cards.

🔴 Quarterfinal: vs. Jessica Pegula

In the quarters, a potential clash with Jessica Pegula looms. Pegula has consistently challenged Swiatek on fast surfaces and has a deep understanding of her patterns. This matchup could define Swiatek’s form heading into the US Open.

🟢 Semifinal: vs. Coco Gauff or Naomi Osaka

If she gets past Pegula, Swiatek may face Coco Gauff or a resurgent Naomi Osaka in the semifinals. Gauff, seeded No. 2, defeated Swiatek en route to her 2023 Cincinnati title. Osaka, meanwhile, continues her comeback and remains a dangerous threat with her power game.

🟠 Final: vs. Aryna Sabalenka

All signs point to a blockbuster final vs. World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, assuming the Belarusian navigates her own side of the draw. The Swiatek–Sabalenka rivalry has defined the last two seasons, and a clash in Cincinnati would be a fitting preview for the US Open.

🔚 Final Thoughts

Swiatek’s draw is challenging but not insurmountable. If she stays aggressive and adapts her clay-court precision to Cincinnati’s faster surface, she could be lifting the trophy — and sending a strong message to the rest of the field.