Alycia Parks vs Daria Kasatkina Prediction – WTA Madrid Open 2025

Match Context & Head‑to‑Head

This is a second‑round clash on April 25, 2025, at the clay‑court Caja Mágica in Madrid.
Their only WTA Meeting was at the 2023 US Open, where Kasatkina came back from a set down to win 2‑6, 6‑4, 6‑2.
They faced each other again in Madrid—and Kasatkina secured a straight‑sets 6‑2, 7‑5 victory.

Current Form & Stats

Kasatkina (World No. 14) began the year inconsistently (9 losses in 19 tour-level matches), though she received a first-round bye in Madrid.
Parks (24) showed strong hard‑court results earlier this year and posted a solid 6‑3, 6‑3 win over Jimenez Kasintseva in her Madrid opener—but clay remains her weakest surface.

Statistically, Parks boasts a powerful serve and deep groundstrokes, yet Kasatkina’s crafty play, high fitness, and comfort on clay tilt the scales.

Analytical Insights & Predictions

Tennis Tonic favors Kasatkina, expecting a straight‑sets victory.
SteveGTennis computes Kasatkina’s win probability at ~69%, compared to Parks’ ~31%.
Dimers.com projects Kasatkina with an even stronger ~78% win probability based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
The Stats Zone also backs a straight‑sets win for Kasatkina, citing her clay advantage and head‑to‑head dominance.

Tactical Breakdown

Kasatkina brings clay‑court savvy: slices, dropshots, and consistent defence. Her endurance fits long rallies well.
Parks brings power, especially on serve, and Madrid’s altitude lessens bounce—this could amplify her aggressive game.

Still, Kasatkina’s adaptability to clay, coupled with her H2H edge and proven Madrid success, lets her control rallies through variation and consistency.

Final Prediction

All assessed angles — historical H2H, clay comfort, analytics, and expert picks — strongly support Daria Kasatkina winning in straight sets, likely with scores such as 6‑4, 6‑3.
While Parks holds upset potential via serve and flat hitting, it would require an exceptional performance and break through Kasatkina’s resilience—something few expect to materialize.

TL;DR: Kasatkina is favored to win 2‑0 on clay, with data and expert models all lining up in her favor. Parks has tools, but would need near‑perfect execution to overturn. Let me know if you’d like a look at betting odds or match-ups for other rounds!