Olaniyi AyoolaDenis Shapovalov and Vilius Gaubas meet on Friday, May 9, 2025, at the Foro Italico in Rome. The match will be played on outdoor clay as part of the ATP Masters 1000 Italian Open.
Shapovalov, a former top-10 player, arrived in Rome hoping to continue his encouraging form. Earlier this year, he captured the Dallas Open (an ATP 500 event), claiming his most significant title to date by defeating three top‑10 opponents—including Casper Ruud—in the finals. However, his clay season has been inconsistent: he exited early in Monte Carlo as well as in the BMW Open, and then lost in Madrid to Alex de Minaur in straight sets.
On the other hand, rising 20‑year‑old Lithuanian Vilius Gaubas is enjoying a breakthrough. He qualified for the main draw in Rome and defeated Damir Dzumhur in three sets in the first round. Gaubas also lifted the Menorca Challenger earlier this year and was runner-up in the Rome Challenger, demonstrating excellent form on clay. As of May 19, his ranking hit a career-high No. 136.
Head-to‑Head & Stats
This is their first meeting on tour—no H2H history exists. Yet stats tell an interesting story: Gaubas has a higher first-serve percentage (78% to Shapovalov’s 53%), excels in return games, and breaks more frequently. Meanwhile, Shapovalov holds a slight edge in saving break points and overall main-tour experience. Recent clay records show Shapovalov with a 1–3 record this season, whereas Gaubas is riding a hot streak (15–5 on clay in 2025).
Odds & Model Insights
Bookmakers favor Shapovalov. Initial moneyline odds set him around 1.43 (≈ –227), versus 2.82 (+175) for Gaubas. Dimers’ predictive simulations show Shapovalov with a ~63–64% win probability, while Gaubas sits around 36–37%.
Prediction
Shapovalov’s superior experience, shot-making ability, and ranking advantage are significant. However, Gaubas is clearly surging—his aggressive return game and confidence from qualifying and Challenger wins make him a dangerous floater, especially on clay.
Expect a competitive match: Shapovalov likely edges it in straight sets if he capitalizes on his power game. If Gaubas breaks early and maintains momentum—particularly by returning well—the match could go the distance. However, the most probable outcome remains:
Pick: Denis Shapovalov d. Vilius Gaubas 2–0 in sets.
Takeaway
Shapovalov’s pedigree and recent ATP success make him the favorite as the more balanced all-court player. Gaubas, powered by confidence and a strong clay resume, won’t go down quietly. Expect high intensity, possibly close games—but Shapovalov should ultimately use his experience to advance.
Musa
